EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 54.3% | 60.0% | 51.5% | 1637 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 58.9% | 56.0% | 53.8% | 1245 | — |
| 3 | Wind Chess | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.4% | 54.0% | 51.7% | 1234 | — |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 42.3% | 50.0% | 44.9% | 1340 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 50.0% | 56.1% | 50.0% | 52.8% | 1120 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 53.2% | 46.7% | 51.5% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Suited | 2 | 22.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 49.3% | 42.5% | 49.2% | 1119 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.8% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 1092 | ↓ low |