← Gaia GA PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Gaia GA PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Aetherwing 2 11.8% 8 62.5% 48.9% 54.5% 51.0% 1482 ↑ top
2 Fire Aggro 1 5.9% 7 71.4% 60.1% 53.6% 52.8% 1461 ↑ top
3 Water Fractal 3 17.6% 10 70.0% 61.4% 52.4% 52.8% 1337
4 Fire Suited 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 69.1% 51.4% 56.3% 1139 ↓ low
5 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 11.8% 9 44.4% 48.0% 51.2% 51.1% 1259 ↓ low
6 Fire Oblation 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 56.1% 50.0% 50.6% 1448 ↑ top
7 Wind Astra Cleric 1 5.9% 5 40.0% 46.3% 50.0% 50.5% 1228 ↓ low
8 Wind Shadowstrike 2 11.8% 9 44.4% 40.1% 46.1% 44.6% 1333
9 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 5.9% 4 25.0% 42.1% 45.7% 47.9% 1126 ↓ low
10 Wind Allies 1 5.9% 4 25.0% 30.4% 45.0% 40.5% 1444 ↑ top
11 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 5.9% 5 20.0% 33.7% 44.4% 45.8% 1281
12 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 5.9% 5 40.0% 58.1% 42.9% 50.6% 1154 ↓ low