← Curio Grand Archive PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Curio Grand Archive PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 1 11.1% 6 66.7% 57.1% 54.0% 53.2% 1464 ↑ top
2 Wind Seiryuu 2 22.2% 7 57.1% 50.9% 52.0% 50.4% 1345
3 Water Aetherwing 1 11.1% 6 66.7% 62.9% 51.7% 52.8% 1381
4 Water Astra Ranger 1 11.1% 4 50.0% 46.6% 50.0% 48.7% 1442 ↑ top
5 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 11.1% 3 33.3% 41.7% 50.0% 49.1% 1511 ↑ top
6 Horse and Taxes 1 11.1% 6 50.0% 47.7% 50.0% 49.1% 1451 ↑ top
7 Water Luxem Assassin 1 11.1% 3 33.3% 43.6% 46.7% 47.0% 1385
8 Wind Chess 1 11.1% 3 0.0% 41.9% 40.0% 46.5% 1138 ↓ low