← Curio Grand Archive PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Curio Grand Archive PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.0% | 53.2% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 22.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 50.9% | 52.0% | 50.4% | 1345 | — |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 62.9% | 51.7% | 52.8% | 1381 | — |
| 4 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 50.0% | 48.7% | 1442 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.7% | 50.0% | 49.1% | 1511 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 11.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 47.7% | 50.0% | 49.1% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.6% | 46.7% | 47.0% | 1385 | — |
| 8 | Wind Chess | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.9% | 40.0% | 46.5% | 1138 | ↓ low |