← Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Store Championships
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Store Championships.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Fire Luxem Assassin
55.0%
↑ top
1st
Wind Lorraine
62.7%
↑ top
3rd
Fire Umbra Guardian
53.3%
↓ low
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 100.0% | 67.5% | 62.7% | 58.1% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 45.0% | 55.0% | 48.0% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 61.5% | 53.3% | 58.7% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 48.6% | 52.5% | 48.7% | 1269 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.3% | 50.0% | 51.7% | 1238 | — |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1212 | — |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 16.7% | 9 | 44.4% | 45.9% | 49.4% | 49.2% | 1231 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 48.0% | 49.1% | 1249 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.6% | 44.0% | 44.6% | 1218 | — |
| 10 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.2% | 44.0% | 48.2% | 1049 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 38.2% | 42.5% | 45.3% | 1083 | ↓ low |