← Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Store Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Lorraine 1 8.3% 5 100.0% 67.5% 62.7% 58.1% 1369 ↑ top
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 45.0% 55.0% 48.0% 1420 ↑ top
3 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 61.5% 53.3% 58.7% 1144 ↓ low
4 Water Umbra Guardian 1 8.3% 4 62.5% 48.6% 52.5% 48.7% 1269 ↑ top
5 Fire Aggro 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 54.3% 50.0% 51.7% 1238
6 Wind Astra Cleric 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1212
7 Water Aetherwing 2 16.7% 9 44.4% 45.9% 49.4% 49.2% 1231
8 Wind Shadowstrike 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 52.4% 48.0% 49.1% 1249
9 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 39.6% 44.0% 44.6% 1218
10 Water Ravishing Mill 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 47.2% 44.0% 48.2% 1049 ↓ low
11 Fire Astra Cleric 1 8.3% 4 12.5% 38.2% 42.5% 45.3% 1083 ↓ low