← Grand Archive Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.5%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1392
· median 1392
· range 1311–1474
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1317
Q3 1416
1616
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
