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Water Tera MageTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-1-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1423
· median 1423
· range 1423–1423
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1317
Q3 1416
1616
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
