Horse and TaxesTier 1
at Toy Corner Store Champs
decks
3
(15.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-4-3
overall winrate
63.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.3%
avg ELO +4.2 per match
expected value
52.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1307
· median 1283
· range 1231–1408
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1162
Q3 1343
1425
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.9% | -7.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
