Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at Toy Corner Store Champs
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.7%
avg ELO -10.4 per match
expected value
41.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1011
· median 1011
· range 1011–1011
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1162
Q3 1343
1425
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse and Taxes | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Fire Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
