EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DFG Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 100.0% | 68.2% | 63.3% | 61.4% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 58.0% | 59.0% | 57.7% | 1441 | — |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 60.9% | 53.2% | 56.4% | 1394 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 16.7% | 35.5% | 40.8% | 41.1% | 1419 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 16.7% | 28.5% | 35.7% | 34.7% | 1391 | — |