Revel fest ascent test locals 1

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Luxem Zander	Tier 1	1	12.5%	2-1-0	66.7%	52.5%	53.3%	51.1%	1250	—
2		Water Aetherwing	Tier 1	1	12.5%	3-0-0	100.0%	54.0%	60.0%	51.9%	1214	↓ low
3		Water Crux Mage	Tier 1	1	12.5%	2-1-0	66.7%	49.9%	53.3%	50.0%	1376	↑ top
4		Water Crux Merlin	Tier 1	1	12.5%	2-1-0	66.7%	51.5%	53.3%	50.7%	1259	—
5		Water Fractal	Tier 2	1	12.5%	1-2-0	33.3%	48.1%	46.7%	49.1%	1159	↓ low
6		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	12.5%	1-2-0	33.3%	48.2%	46.7%	49.1%	1262	—
7		Wind Luxem Zander	Tier 2	1	12.5%	1-2-0	33.3%	48.1%	46.7%	49.1%	1517	↑ top
8		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	1	12.5%	0-3-0	0.0%	47.8%	40.0%	49.0%	1183	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Luxem Zander 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Aetherwing 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Crux Merlin 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Fractal 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 12.5%
• Wind Luxem Zander 1 deck · 12.5%
• Wind Shadowstrike 1 deck · 12.5%