← Revel fest ascent test locals 1
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Revel fest ascent test locals 1.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 100.0% | 54.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Zander | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 52.5% | 53.3% | 51.1% | 1250 | — |
| 3 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 49.9% | 53.3% | 50.0% | 1376 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 51.5% | 53.3% | 50.7% | 1259 | — |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 46.7% | 49.1% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.2% | 46.7% | 49.1% | 1262 | — |
| 7 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 46.7% | 49.1% | 1517 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 47.8% | 40.0% | 49.0% | 1183 | ↓ low |