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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at ArtofCards RDO Store Championship
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
8-2-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
73.5%
avg ELO +10.5 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1457
· median 1457
· range 1329–1584
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1223
Q3 1432
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Water Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Overlord | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
