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Water AetherwingTier 2
at ArtofCards RDO Store Championship
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.0%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1248
· median 1248
· range 1073–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1223
Q3 1432
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
