← RDO Season Start Tournament!
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at RDO Season Start Tournament!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 83.3% | 50.7% | 57.5% | 50.4% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 83.3% | 51.3% | 56.7% | 50.6% | 1323 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 52.2% | 50.3% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 22.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1297 | — |
| 5 | Wind Exalted Alice | 1 | 11.1% | 1 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 1313 | — |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 47.8% | 49.6% | 1301 | — |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 49.4% | 43.3% | 49.7% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Slimes | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.8% | 40.0% | 49.3% | 1280 | — |