← RDO Season Start Tournament!

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at RDO Season Start Tournament!. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Aetherwing 1 11.1% 3 83.3% 50.7% 57.5% 50.4% 1378 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Mage 1 11.1% 3 83.3% 51.3% 56.7% 50.6% 1323 ↑ top
3 Wind Razorgale 1 11.1% 3 50.0% 50.2% 52.2% 50.3% 1231 ↓ low
4 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 22.2% 6 50.0% 50.1% 50.0% 50.1% 1297
5 Wind Exalted Alice 1 11.1% 1 50.0% 49.6% 50.0% 49.6% 1313
6 Wind Shadowstrike 1 11.1% 3 50.0% 49.6% 47.8% 49.6% 1301
7 Fire Aggro 1 11.1% 3 16.7% 49.4% 43.3% 49.7% 1134 ↓ low
8 Slimes 1 11.1% 2 0.0% 48.8% 40.0% 49.3% 1280