← GA Middle East Weekly RDO #3

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly RDO #3. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 12.5% 3 100.0% 51.4% 60.0% 50.5% 1378 ↑ top
2 Water Neos 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 50.4% 53.3% 50.2% 1205
3 Wind Tera Kongming 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 50.4% 52.5% 50.4% 1196 ↓ low
4 Fire Crux Mage 2 25.0% 5 50.0% 50.7% 50.0% 50.3% 1234
5 Fire Tera Mage 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 49.9% 50.0% 49.9% 1159 ↓ low
6 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 12.5% 3 16.7% 48.9% 42.5% 49.4% 1134 ↓ low
7 Water Ravishing Mill 1 12.5% 2 0.0% 47.7% 40.0% 48.6% 1490 ↑ top