← Radiant Origins Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at Radiant Origins Store Championship
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-2-1
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.3%
avg ELO +5.9 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1343
· median 1343
· range 1250–1436
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1197
Q3 1381
1451
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Neos | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.3 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
