EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Champion Ship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suited | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 80.0% | 70.1% | 58.9% | 60.3% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 80.0% | 48.7% | 57.5% | 49.9% | 1545 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 47.9% | 50.0% | 49.0% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 59.9% | 50.0% | 54.0% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 40.2% | 47.8% | 45.9% | 1377 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.0% | 46.7% | 48.1% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.3% | 46.7% | 49.2% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Chess | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.5% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1163 | ↓ low |