Fire SlimesTier 1
at Michigan RDO Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 26.3% | -17.7 |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Water Neos | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +7.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Chess | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Rogue | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baby Silver Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |