Fire Umbra AliceTier 3
at Michigan RDO Regionals
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.4%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1199
· median 1199
· range 1199–1199
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1158
Q3 1325
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
