EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at BBK RDO Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 85.0% | 60.2% | 59.8% | 54.5% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 10.7% | 15 | 70.0% | 62.1% | 55.0% | 53.9% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 57.3% | 54.3% | 53.7% | 1374 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 50.2% | 52.0% | 49.9% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 60.0% | 57.6% | 51.8% | 52.8% | 1265 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 63.5% | 51.4% | 54.5% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.5% | 50.0% | 53.0% | 1129 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 43.7% | 48.9% | 49.8% | 1207 | — |
| 9 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 59.8% | 48.8% | 51.0% | 1139 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 48.8% | 44.8% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 48.7% | 49.5% | 1255 | — |
| 12 | Luxem Mordred | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.1% | 48.6% | 48.1% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.7% | 48.6% | 50.7% | 1203 | — |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.0% | 47.5% | 50.0% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 7.1% | 9 | 38.9% | 46.6% | 46.1% | 47.8% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 36.7% | 46.0% | 43.8% | 1280 | — |
| 17 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 40.0% | 50.2% | 46.0% | 48.9% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 7.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 32.2% | 44.2% | 43.1% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.8% | 40.0% | 45.4% | 1076 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | 1154 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.6% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.2% | 40.0% | 41.2% | 1118 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 3.6% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.2% | 40.0% | 41.2% | 1118 | ↓ low |