Fire Umbra CielTier 1
at Pi RDO SC
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.8%
avg ELO +10.8 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1163
· median 1163
· range 1163–1163
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1166
Q3 1341
1466
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
