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Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at LLE Store Championship RDO Season
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.2%
avg ELO +6.5 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1149
· median 1149
· range 1149–1149
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1151
Q3 1384
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -7.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
