← LLE Store Championship RDO Season
Water ExiaTier 2
at LLE Store Championship RDO Season
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1208
· median 1208
· range 1208–1208
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1151
Q3 1384
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
