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Fire OblationTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Wind Neos | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Golden Checkmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spring Cleaning | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ionized Asceticism | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Folded Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystal of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Argus, All-Seeing Giant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |