Water AetherwingTier 1
at RDO店冠
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxem Mordred | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.1 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -5.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |