Water FractalTier 2
at RDO店冠
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-1-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.3%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1137
· median 1137
· range 1137–1137
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1137
Q1 1150
Q3 1238
1429
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 33.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Luxem Mordred | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
