Fire OblationTier 2
at RDO Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 21.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Checkmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spring Cleaning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ionized Asceticism | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |