Water AetherwingTier 1
at RDO Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 17.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.0% | +6.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.6 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimble Longbowman | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vantage Point | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reposition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chained Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |