EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Cardart RDO Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 90.0% | 64.0% | 58.1% | 55.4% | 1517 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 70.0% | 51.5% | 56.3% | 52.4% | 1550 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 7.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 55.2% | 55.0% | 54.0% | 1471 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Horse and Taxes | 2 | 7.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 64.0% | 54.2% | 58.1% | 1380 | — |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 10.7% | 12 | 70.8% | 49.0% | 53.1% | 48.2% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 3 | 10.7% | 11 | 54.5% | 45.9% | 52.7% | 51.0% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.6% | 2 | 50.0% | 61.6% | 52.0% | 58.7% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 7.1% | 10 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 51.3% | 51.1% | 1355 | — |
| 9 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | 1445 | — |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 50.0% | 40.4% | 48.6% | 46.1% | 1410 | — |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.6% | 3 | 66.7% | 54.2% | 48.0% | 47.7% | 1498 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.3% | 45.0% | 47.2% | 1407 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 50.7% | 1042 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Tera Kongming | 2 | 7.1% | 8 | 31.2% | 42.9% | 43.6% | 47.6% | 1378 | — |
| 15 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 10.7% | 7 | 28.6% | 47.2% | 43.0% | 46.7% | 1307 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.6% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.5% | 40.0% | 42.4% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.6% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.9% | 40.0% | 43.0% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.6% | 4 | 0.0% | 38.9% | 40.0% | 46.0% | 1192 | ↓ low |