← Card Merchant Ponsonby - RDO STore Champs
Fire AggroTier 1
at Card Merchant Ponsonby - RDO STore Champs
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.3%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1275–1428
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1222
Q3 1408
1513
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
