Water ExiaTier 2
at AJITO STORE Championship
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.1%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1231
· median 1231
· range 1231–1231
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1214
Q3 1381
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
