Water AetherwingTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-2-1
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -4.6 per match
expected value
41.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1198
· median 1198
· range 1198–1198
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1102
Q1 1198
Q3 1412
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 15.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
