EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 第2回キキ杯.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 87.5% | 52.8% | 58.0% | 51.2% | 1327 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 87.5% | 50.0% | 58.0% | 50.0% | 1545 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Exia | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 52.0% | 56.0% | 51.0% | 1303 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.1% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 1241 | — |
| 6 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.4% | 46.7% | 49.7% | 1110 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 18.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.9% | 45.0% | 49.6% | 1255 | — |
| 9 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.1% | 44.0% | 49.1% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Overlord | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 47.3% | 40.0% | 48.7% | 1149 | ↓ low |