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Water AetherwingTier 1
at Vincent's Card Colosseum RDO Store Champship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 16.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Water Astra Diana | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Water Exia | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Diamond Ribbon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tasershot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Divinity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gunsmith's Arsenal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nightmare Coil | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trivariate Dream | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Weaving Manastream | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Engulf | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backdash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |