EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ACMETCG STORE CHAMPIOMSHIP.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 100.0% | 78.7% | 62.7% | 63.6% | 1312 | — |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 57.8% | 55.0% | 53.1% | 1340 | — |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.2% | 54.7% | 48.7% | 1492 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 13.3% | 8 | 68.8% | 56.5% | 54.2% | 52.2% | 1371 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 13.3% | 7 | 50.0% | 53.9% | 50.5% | 51.7% | 1265 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 48.0% | 47.9% | 1324 | — |
| 7 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.7% | 46.7% | 46.7% | 1326 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.7% | 2 | 50.0% | 52.5% | 46.7% | 48.7% | 1250 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.1% | 45.0% | 47.2% | 1221 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.0% | 33.8% | 40.0% | 33.8% | 1563 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 1 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.0% | 36.9% | 40.0% | 36.9% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Exia | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 0.0% | 31.3% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 1277 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 40.4% | 40.0% | 45.3% | 1063 | ↓ low |