Water ExiaTier 1
at Store Champs at TFB
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -4.3 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1384
· median 1384
· range 1384–1384
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1276
Q3 1419
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.7 |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
