← Card Merchant Christchurch RDO Regionals
Water FractalTier 2
at Card Merchant Christchurch RDO Regionals
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1145
· median 1145
· range 1145–1145
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1163
Q3 1381
1558
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Chess | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
