EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 2do Torneo de Mayo.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Water Luxem Assassin
56.7%
↑ top
1st
Fire Firebloom Burn
57.5%
↑ top
3rd
Wind Shadowstrike
53.3%
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 83.3% | 52.0% | 57.5% | 51.0% | 1276 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 83.3% | 52.1% | 56.7% | 51.0% | 1262 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 51.0% | 53.3% | 50.5% | 1202 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.1% | 50.0% | 50.2% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1191 | — |
| 6 | Wind Umbra Ciel | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.7% | 45.0% | 49.0% | 1211 | — |
| 7 | Wind Kongming | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 47.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | 1115 | ↓ low |