Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-4-1
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.0%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1283
· median 1283
· range 1216–1351
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1198
Q1 1321
Q3 1428
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 25.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.0% | -4.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 16.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crescendo | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +24.9 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
