Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at 401 Kollectibles Regional
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1099
· median 1099
· range 1099–1099
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1196
Q3 1464
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 21.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
