← Gonza Grand Archive Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Gonza Grand Archive Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Allies 2 25.0% 7 85.7% 71.3% 64.0% 63.4% 1278
2 Water Ravishing Mill 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 48.6% 50.0% 52.3% 1290
3 Slimes 3 37.5% 10 40.0% 38.8% 44.8% 42.9% 1280
4 Wind Shadowstrike 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 42.3% 43.3% 44.2% 1300
5 Fire Crux Merlin 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 48.0% 42.9% 48.0% 1086 ↓ low