EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Gamersshop Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Shadowstrike

51.5%

33.3% share · 10 matches

1st

Fire Crux Hybrid

52.5%

33.3% share · 6 matches

3rd

Slimes

51.1%

8.3% share · 3 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Hybrid	4	33.3%	6	50.0%	48.0%	52.5%	49.9%	1439	—
2	Wind Shadowstrike	4	33.3%	10	65.0%	64.6%	51.5%	54.1%	1422	—
3	Slimes	1	8.3%	3	66.7%	55.8%	51.1%	51.2%	1267	↓ low
4	Water Ravishing Mill	1	8.3%	2	50.0%	50.8%	50.0%	50.8%	1341	↓ low
5	Wind Crux Hybrid	1	8.3%	3	16.7%	27.3%	41.7%	36.5%	1642	↑ top
6	Fire Umbra Tristan	1	8.3%	2	0.0%	38.1%	40.0%	42.9%	1352	↓ low