Water Astra ArisannaTier 2
at Regionals MRC
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.2%
avg ELO -12.0 per match
expected value
36.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1130
· median 1130
· range 1130–1130
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1154
Q3 1364
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
