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EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Games & Lattes Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Hybrid 1 5.9% 4 100.0% 71.6% 60.0% 58.8% 1292
2 Water Neos 1 5.9% 4 75.0% 60.0% 57.5% 55.9% 1216
3 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 5.9% 4 75.0% 51.3% 56.7% 52.4% 1505 ↑ top
4 Water Allies 1 5.9% 4 75.0% 58.6% 55.7% 53.8% 1303 ↑ top
5 Wind Allies 3 17.6% 9 55.6% 55.7% 53.0% 53.2% 1294
6 Wind Umbra Diana 1 5.9% 3 33.3% 49.3% 52.0% 54.7% 1334 ↑ top
7 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 5.9% 4 50.0% 51.0% 50.0% 50.4% 1120 ↓ low
8 Water Ravishing Mill 1 5.9% 4 50.0% 53.8% 50.0% 52.5% 1367 ↑ top
9 Slimes 1 5.9% 4 50.0% 47.0% 49.3% 47.9% 1101 ↓ low
10 Wind Shadowstrike 3 17.6% 12 37.5% 37.4% 45.6% 45.0% 1244
11 Fire Slimes 1 5.9% 4 37.5% 52.5% 45.0% 48.9% 1228
12 Fire Arcane 1 5.9% 3 0.0% 34.6% 40.0% 42.8% 1175 ↓ low
13 Fire Erupting 1 5.9% 3 0.0% 32.1% 35.0% 38.0% 1103 ↓ low