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EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Games & Lattes Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 100.0% | 71.6% | 60.0% | 58.8% | 1292 | — |
| 2 | Water Neos | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 75.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | 55.9% | 1216 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.3% | 56.7% | 52.4% | 1505 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 75.0% | 58.6% | 55.7% | 53.8% | 1303 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 3 | 17.6% | 9 | 55.6% | 55.7% | 53.0% | 53.2% | 1294 | — |
| 6 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.3% | 52.0% | 54.7% | 1334 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 1120 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 50.0% | 52.5% | 1367 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.0% | 49.3% | 47.9% | 1101 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 17.6% | 12 | 37.5% | 37.4% | 45.6% | 45.0% | 1244 | — |
| 11 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 37.5% | 52.5% | 45.0% | 48.9% | 1228 | — |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.6% | 40.0% | 42.8% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.1% | 35.0% | 38.0% | 1103 | ↓ low |