← Dueling Land Mercurial Heart Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Dueling Land Mercurial Heart Store Championship
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.5%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1252
· median 1252
· range 1228–1277
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1124
Q1 1164
Q3 1256
1317
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
