EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship (MRC).
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 2 | 25.0% | 9 | 77.8% | 70.2% | 58.0% | 58.2% | 1304 | — |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 53.2% | 55.7% | 51.9% | 1260 | — |
| 3 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 42.5% | 47.2% | 46.3% | 1322 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Umbra Tristan | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 34.5% | 44.3% | 42.0% | 1569 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 25.0% | 5 | 10.0% | 37.8% | 40.6% | 44.8% | 1221 | — |