← Outpost Ghent Store Championship
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Outpost Ghent Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Slimes | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Allies | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arcane Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arcane Disposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Careful Study | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Limiter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Arcane | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer into Mana | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Anger the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Voltaic Sphere | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shock Therapy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surveillance Stone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Overwhelming | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |