← 2024/07/14 GtCG MRC Season Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at 2024/07/14 GtCG MRC Season Store Championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.5%
avg ELO -7.3 per match
expected value
41.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1069
· median 1069
· range 1069–1069
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1069
Q1 1144
Q3 1389
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 21.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
