← 2024/07/14 GtCG MRC Season Store Championship
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at 2024/07/14 GtCG MRC Season Store Championship
decks
4
(21.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-7-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1400
· median 1390
· range 1127–1694
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1069
Q1 1144
Q3 1389
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.0 |
| Wind Allies | 10.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.1% | +10.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.3% | -11.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Neos | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
