← Mercurial Heart Store Championships
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Mercurial Heart Store Championships
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1231
· median 1231
· range 1231–1231
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1125
Q1 1272
Q3 1416
1630
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
